{"id":324,"date":"2010-01-19T20:36:23","date_gmt":"2010-01-19T19:36:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wydawnictwopodziemne.rohnka5.atthost24.pl\/?p=324"},"modified":"2012-04-14T19:18:54","modified_gmt":"2012-04-14T18:18:54","slug":"english-the-great-provocation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.wydawnictwopodziemne.com\/en\/2010\/01\/19\/english-the-great-provocation\/","title":{"rendered":"The Great Provocation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>To describe the grand machinations of a long term strategic plan, such as the one deployed by the soviets, the English or American writers usually used the term <em>deception<\/em>, i.e. a piece of trickery, as in magic, which leaves the observer cheated, mistaken or under false impression<em>.<\/em> \u00a0This is indeed a good description of the state of mind Western politicians find themselves in when confronted by soviet plots.\u00a0 However, in Polish tradition (and in so far as I\u2019m aware in many other languages) such schemes are described by a different term: <em>provocation<\/em>.\u00a0 There was a very good reason why Yale University decided to publish J\u00f3zef Mackiewicz\u2019s seminal work under the title <em>The Triumph of Provocation<\/em> rather than \u201ctriumph of deception\u201d.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>According to the Oxford Dictionary, the word <em>provocation <\/em>has many meanings but we will leave the obscure ecclesiastical court usage aside.\u00a0 <em>Provocation <\/em>could mean as much as \u201ca challenge to fight\u201d but also \u201cthe action or an act of provoking someone; an incitement, a stimulus to anger, resentment or irritation\u201d; <em>to provoke <\/em>is as much as \u201cto incite or urge into some act or to do something; stimulate to action\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Whilst it is true to say that soviet plans are always aiming to deceive, to cheat, to create a false impression, the word <em>provocation <\/em>describes a more important aspect of this phenomenon, at least in my opinion.\u00a0 Namely, that it is not enough for the soviet strategists to deceive, to dupe their foes; the actual aim of the operation is to <em>provoke <\/em>the opponents to action, into doing something, seemingly of their own free will, which would bring about their own destruction.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>J\u00f3zef Mackiewicz was not the first to use the term, although he made it his own.\u00a0 What is provocation?\u00a0 Let me quote extensively from Mackiewicz since, demonstrably, he is not widely known:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\u201cThe encyclopaedia definition states: \u2018An insidious inducement to action, which may bring about detrimental results to the provoked person and to third parties.\u2019 Were we to limit ourselves to this definition only, we would discern elements characteristic of a typical provocation in the activities of the Communist \u2018Association for the Development of Contacts with Fellow-Countrymen Abroad,\u2019 whose task is to convince \u00e9migr\u00e9s that they should cooperate in all matters which are in the common \u2018interests of the country and the nation\u2019 while abroad. (1) These activities are \u2018insidious,\u2019 since the slogan \u2018interests of the country and the nation\u2019 is a screen for the interests of international Communism. (2) They have \u2018detrimental results to the provoked person,\u2019 since if we understand the word \u2018person\u2019 to involve the whole nation, it is directly encouraged to contribute to the consolidation of its own slavery. (3) They are also detrimental \u2018to third parties,\u2019 since collaboration with international Communism constitutes a potential danger for other nations.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The term <em>provocation<\/em> in its common usage, however, has broader implications. Even if we go back to such an anachronistic model of individual provocation as the Azef affair, we find within it elements of \u2018double-dealing\u2019 which are so difficult to distinguish in any kind of provocation. Were the assassinations of Plehve and Grand Duke Sergei, organized by Azef, in the interests of the Socialist Revolutionary Party terrorists? Definitely. That is why, on the one hand, General Gerasimov, a departmental chief of the Okhrana, shouted at Azef in a moment of bad humour: \u2018From this moment on, no more double-crossing!\u2019 On the other hand, however, after Azef was unmasked by Burtsev, the Central Committee of the Socialist Revolutionaries \u2018let him slip away,\u2019 as Lopatin expressed it. And it was rumoured that the Central Committee had known even earlier about his contacts with the police&#8230; A provocation, therefore, is always to some degree a double game. Communist provocations invariably contain more or less concealed elements of <em>poputnichestvo<\/em>, that is, of an apparent compromise. This compromise allows for diverse interpretations, and consequently one does not know for sure where the apparent interests of the target of the provocation end and where the interests of the provocateur begin. The provocation operation is therefore arranged in such a way that the quantitative weight of the benefits to the planners are greater than the quantitative weight of the compromises on minor matters made to the target.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The \u2018Gomu\u0142ka\u2019 type of provocation as applied to Polish \u00e9migr\u00e9 circles is in complete accordance with the instructions of the already mentioned diversionary association. This latter does not demand that the \u00e9migr\u00e9s return home or abandon their ideological positions: it demands only that they support the supposed interests of the \u2018homeland\u2019 in the most important matters; that is, the interests of international Communism, which are concealed beneath this slogan.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The last paragraph of the above citation leads me nicely to my analogy.\u00a0 I believe that the alleged collapse of the soviet union never happened, that \u201ccommunism faked its own death\u201d.\u00a0 It follows, therefore, that what happens inside the former communist bloc must be viewed with some suspicion.\u00a0 This does not mean to say that all people living there are secret agents of the kgb, since that would be as absurd, as it is impossible.\u00a0 It does, however, mean that the institutions of state cannot be somehow magically freed from the essential influence of soviet structures without the whole provocation disintegrating, simply because, were there any danger of these institutions breaking free, the soviet structures would intervene.\u00a0 We had numerous examples of that; the parliamentary coup in Poland in June 1992 is one of many.<\/p>\n<p>Having said that, Ukrainian orange revolution does not look to me as an example of the institutions breaking free (I think even Nyquist agrees with that) nor the soviet intervention in Georgia looks much like the evil empire striking back.\u00a0 Let\u2019s focus on the latter for a moment.\u00a0 Jeff Nyquist wrote:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\u201cThe decisive argument for the authenticity of Saakashvili&#8217;s revolution in Georgia is found in the Russian military strike of August 2008: The Kremlin displayed its evil intentions and then was forced to abandon its military offensive by Western economic pressure. It is hard to imagine a more pathetic outcome, from a strategic point of view. The deception policy of 1989-91 was seriously damaged. There is nothing here, whatsoever, that could serve Moscow&#8217;s purpose. The West applied its economic weapon and forced Russia to retreat. If this is the work of a KGB agent sitting in Tbilisi, then the KGB has become as stupid as the CIA, and it&#8217;s strategy has become nonsense.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That is rather bizarre coming from an avowed reader of Golitsyn.\u00a0 So, according to Golitsyn, was soviet military strike on Czechoslovakia in August 1968 a \u201cdecisive argument for the authenticity\u201d of <em>Prague spring<\/em>?!\u00a0 Then, as now, Kremlin displayed its evil intentions and was \u201ctheir deception policy damaged\u201d as a result?!\u00a0 Surely not according to Golitsyn.\u00a0 I agree with Golitsyn, as it happens, so I can\u2019t see any damage being done at all.\u00a0 The soviet strategy has become nonsense? \u00a0Which part exactly, please? \u00a0Either I don\u2019t understand what the soviet strategy is or Nyquist has lost me completely.<\/p>\n<p>Nyquist urges me to \u201cconcede that genuine revolutions in Georgia or Ukraine are <em>possible<\/em>\u201d.\u00a0 First and foremost, I have never stated anywhere that they were impossible, so I have nothing to concede however much I\u2019d love to please Jeff Nyquist.\u00a0 Nevertheless, I can\u2019t imagine that I will be easily convinced by a revolution from above directed by people whom Nyquist describes as \u201cguilty by association\u201d. Again, I read Nyquist in astonishment:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\u201cIt is probable, indeed, that Saakashvili was initially used by Georgian dictator Eduard Shevardnadze as a cast member in a further attempt to \u2018renew\u2019 the mechanisms of Kremlin control in Georgia. Unexpectedly, Saakashvili wrested power away from Shevardnadze&#8217;s lieutenants, and gradually fortified his position.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>What is the logical classification of this conclusion?\u00a0 Is it only \u201cprobable\u201d?\u00a0 It seems to be stated as a fact but I can see no evidence supporting it.\u00a0 Should Nyquist have stated that it was <em>proven<\/em> Saakashvili was initially used but it was <em>possible<\/em> that he moved away from his mentor, I would have to reluctantly agree even though I would prefer to withhold judgment, to retain my cautious approach to all members of the <em>demokratura <\/em>(this is a brilliant phrase apparently invented by the Ukrainians to denounce the old soviet <em>nomenklatura<\/em> hiding under a thin coating of pseudo-democratic rhetoric and governing them under false pretences)<em> <\/em>but as things stand, I cannot see any reason for Nyquist\u2019s acceptance of Saakashvili\u2019s <em>bona fides.\u00a0 <\/em>At this point, please allow me a rather tedious digression.<\/p>\n<p>A long standing debate was taking place in the Fifties amongst some members of the Western intelligence community on whether the soviet bloc should be treated as a monolith or would it be better to differentiate the approach to individual members of the bloc and thus create cracks in their unity.\u00a0 Was soviet leadership a collective acting in unison or was it just a field of never-ending feuds and power struggles?\u00a0 Shelepin was aware of these debates through his network of highly placed moles and quickly decided that by constantly providing proof of divisions he could strengthen the hand of those among Western leaders who, seeing a split with Tito, than with Albania, with China and Romania etc., argued that they were genuine and that the Western policies of discernment were working. \u00a0The same was true about local parties, including cpsu, where there was supposed to be a perpetual struggle between the \u201cconservatives\u201d (that must rate as the most idiotic name ever invented to call orthodox communist \u201cconservatives\u201d!) and \u201cliberals\u201d or \u201creformist\u201d.\u00a0 We saw the same pattern repeated over and over again <em>ad nauseam<\/em> in every country and yet, sovietologists swallowed it all and happily provided Western media with appropriate interpretations: support the liberals or things will go bad!\u00a0 Or (to borrow from Orwell\u2019s sheep): <em>Liberals good!\u00a0 Conservatives bad!<\/em><\/p>\n<p>In reality, they were all playing as a team.\u00a0 Mackiewicz demonstrated it on numerous occasions.\u00a0 Golitsyn went one better by correctly predicting their next step on the basis of his methodology.\u00a0 Mackiewicz could not have read Anatoliy Golitsyn (he died in January 1985 after a long illness) but he was for many years faced with a strange spectacle of free people, Polish political \u00e9migr\u00e9s, who were vociferous in their anticommunism and yet always supported one communist faction against the other. \u00a0He was constantly amazed at the popularity garnered in the West by people such as Michnik or Sakharov, and was quite often accused by the same \u00e9migr\u00e9 circles for \u201cattacking those who provide the only hope\u201d or that a \u201cverbal assault on them amounts to an assault on our cause\u201d&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Michnik was the <em>spiritus movens<\/em> of the round table talks and, as the owner of <em>Gazeta Wyborcza,<\/em> a popular Warsaw daily,<em> <\/em>had a huge influence on the overall acceptance of the 1989 spectacle.\u00a0 Michnik had been persecuted, beaten up, arrested more times than anyone else \u2013 and still remained a commie (quite an achievement, really).\u00a0 Anyway, Mackiewicz faced with that unedifying spectacle concluded that it was a concerted attempt by soviet strategists to eradicate anticommunism.\u00a0 He could not identify the ultimate goals of the operation he was observing with growing alarm but I believe his criticisms proved inspired and the subsequent turn of events demonstrated who was really damaging the anticommunist cause.<\/p>\n<p>Neither do I think that we are witnessing the last gasps of the Great Provocation.\u00a0 The genius of Shelepin\u2019s plan lies in having many irons in the fire simultaneously; in having many contingency plans for many possibilities, hence my hypothesis of the \u201cthird echelon of soviet leaders\u201d to perpetuate the fiction.\u00a0 In other words, I do not believe that the original plan conceived in the late Fifties contained anything like an intended fruition around year 2000 or the false revolutions in 1989-91.\u00a0 Andrei Navrozov described it somewhere as delicate, almost imperceptible, \u201ccranking up of a plate\u201d (I quote from memory), whereby things fall into place very slowly but surely.\u00a0 It will inevitably take time but the risk of speeding things up is far greater than of waiting.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ve read somewhere (but unfortunately can\u2019t remember where) that when someone pointed out to the great James Jesus Angleton that he himself could have been a soviet mole, he replied that it was a possibility, which should not be discarded easily.\u00a0 The very nature of every successful deception is to sow confusion in the mind of the enemy.\u00a0 Angleton\u2019s opponents within the CIA and the US Government criticised his methods for bringing paralysis to the American intelligence operations and, let\u2019s face it, they were right.\u00a0 The paralysis, however, was the inevitable conclusion of an attempt at clearing the almighty mess that the US secret services were brought to by soviet penetration.<\/p>\n<p>We find ourselves today in a similar situation \u2013 <em>toutes proportions gard\u00e9e <\/em>\u2013 to the one Angleton faced.\u00a0 How do we avoid paralysis and defeatism without falling into a trap of accepting soviet dummies for reality?\u00a0 Should we model ourselves on Angleton and Mackiewicz and risk isolation, perhaps even paralysis?\u00a0 Or should we take lessons in hope and optimism?\u00a0 Mackiewicz and Angleton were very rarely wrong.\u00a0 It is actually quite astonishing to find out today, after 50-60 years, that some of Mackiewicz\u2019s \u00e9migr\u00e9 opponents were on the payroll of the kgb&#8230;\u00a0 Silly me!\u00a0 Reading them, I thought they were just idiots.<\/p>\n<p>I quite simply prefer to be much more cautious than Nyquist is.\u00a0 I do not believe that taking sides in internal power struggles happening within soviet reach has ever lead to anything good even when those struggles were real.\u00a0 In the case of Georgia and the Ukraine, however, they could very easily be just another disinformation campaign and then we will find ourselves with egg on our faces.\u00a0 Convincing Jeff Nyquist of the \u201cauthenticity of Saakashvili\u2019s revolution\u201d or that \u201cwhat happened in Ukraine was a small step in a journey of a thousand miles\u201d might already count as a small victory among the Moscow strategists just like acceptance of Gomu\u0142ka amongst the \u00e9migr\u00e9s did in 1956.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>To describe the grand machinations of a long term strategic plan, such as the one deployed by the soviets, the English or American writers usually used the term deception, i.e. a piece of trickery, as in magic, which leaves the observer cheated, mistaken or under false impression. \u00a0This is indeed a good description of the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,64],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-324","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-michal-bakowski","category-trojkatna-konstelacja"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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