Communism has collapsed.<\/p>\n
The Cold War is over.<\/p>\n
Soviet union is disintegrating.<\/p>\n
Marxism-leninism is dead.<\/p>\n
Or at least everyone says so.<\/p>\n
All these dramatic changes of such historic importance have apparently been sparked off by the famous \u201cabortive coup in Moscow\u201d.\u00a0 The hardline plotters seem to have sealed the fate of the Cold War and demolished the communist party rule.\u00a0 They\u2019ve killed marxism-leninism doctrine and torn the soviet union apart in one short fit of brilliantly displayed inefficiency, stupidity, drunkenness, indecisiveness and so on and so forth.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Party\u2019s over\u201d, as British tabloids have used to put it for the last three years.\u00a0 Yes, three years.\u00a0 Well in advance of the coup, experts in these matters had pronounced their belief in the \u201ccollapse theory\u201d.\u00a0 In fact, communism has been buried by the media before: in every decade, under every leader, again and again.\u00a0 Perhaps we should say that, like a collapsible toy, it was being dismantled and put together again.\u00a0 Collapsible communism?<\/p>\n
The Cold War, strictly speaking, has been over for much longer.\u00a0 It ended over thirty years ago, when Malenkov, regarded at the time as Stalin\u2019s successor, visited London.\u00a0 Since then we have encountered one thaw<\/em>, one d\u00e9tente<\/em>, and one glasnost\u2019<\/em>, divided by short periods of realisation, on the Western part, of the true meaning of these exercises and a reluctant coming to terms with another soviet deception.\u00a0 However, since Gorbach\u00ebv had announced merrily that together with Bush they \u201cdefeated the cold war\u201d, suddenly, the soviet interpretation of modern history has become a norm.<\/p>\n That was the first pillar of new sovietology: rejoice, the war is over (even if only a cold war).<\/p>\n Communism, vaguely defined with reference to the theory and practice of command economy, collapsed even earlier, i.e. in late 1917.\u00a0 In the Eighties, however, some Western journalists, appalled by living conditions in the ussr, decided that \u201ccommunism proved itself ineffective in the management of economy\u201d.\u00a0 In fact, the quality of life used to change only from bad to worse under the soviet rule.\u00a0 Communists were never willing or able to deliver goods to their people.\u00a0 They undertook control over production and distribution of every single cabbage in the land not for the sake of the people but for the sake of controlling.\u00a0 And has communism every showed itself ineffective in exercising control?\u00a0 Thus, the civilian economy could and should be in a state of permanent collapse because \u201cshortage\u201d is a better instrument of control than \u201cplenty\u201d.\u00a0 The command economy served well in the past as an instrument of sovietisation.\u00a0 It serves even better now when the real economic chaos contributes to the \u201cweak image\u201d \u2013 the soviet union is so poor that it no longer poses any threat to anyone.\u00a0 At the same time, the collapsed economy can be instrumental in weakening the West \u2013 we will return to this later.<\/p>\n The soviets are as keen to promote the \u201cweak image\u201d nowadays, as they were eager to create the image of a superpower at the time when they were trailing behind the West in technological race.\u00a0 The gap in technology, however, was closed due to the efficiency and competitiveness of an alternative economy under communist control.\u00a0 This capable structure has not collapsed so far.\u00a0 It flourishes under the glasnost\u2019<\/em> regime producing a wide range of arms with no match in Western arsenals.\u00a0 Some soviet officials have indicated recently that the military complex will have to continue its production simply because closing down so many factories could start social unrest. [1] This suggestion has been me with sympathetic understanding on the Western side.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the quality of MiG-29 fighter-aircraft, for instance, was met with disbelief by Western experts.\u00a0 They were astonished even more than an unfortunate buyer of a Lada car is amazed with the quality of his vehicle.\u00a0 The Lada is a product of the collapsed economy and is designed to amaze, while nuclear submarines, ballistic missiles, tanks and helicopters are designed for more practical purposes.\u00a0 Still, interestingly, the Western public is incapable of recognising these purposes.\u00a0 Any possible appreciation of developments in the ussr has been subdued by constant astonishment.\u00a0 \u201cHow is it possible,\u201d a member of the public could have grumbled over The Daily Telegraph <\/em>of August 26, 1991, \u201cthat, despite continued food shortages, they were capable of producing an advanced technology aircraft, which \u2018has become a yardstick against which the other fighters are judged\u2019?\u201d [2] Well, exactly.\u00a0 How is it possible?\u00a0 My astonishment matches that of American aircraft manufacturers.\u00a0 How is it possible to keep on talking about the collapse of communism?<\/p>\n It seems that, with a little help from their soviet friends, Western observers invented a new collapsible version of communism.\u00a0 Confronted with a state capable of bringing its own people to the point of near starvation while using its vast resources to create advanced military equipment, they are quick to emphasize the weakness of this state in any field \u2013 but the military.\u00a0 Central soviet authorities are said to be so weak that, although they can build ballistic missiles, they cannot feed their population or prevent the break up of the union.<\/p>\n The ussr is disintegrating, is it not?\u00a0 This is the third cornerstone of the collapse theory.<\/p>\n The Baltics have been released.\u00a0 Moldavia will soon be let free to join free Romania under president Iliescu (who had been Ceausescu\u2019s right hand man).\u00a0 The Ukraine will most probably be involved in a prolonged tug of war for its independence.\u00a0 However, the circumstances of these extraordinary developments are worth scrutiny.\u00a0 The strategic importance of the Baltic states has diminished, at least from Moscow\u2019s point of view, since Koenigsberg was renamed Kaliningrad.\u00a0 A similar argument could be put forward as far as the strategic relevance of once heavily fought over Bessarabia.\u00a0 The Ukraine, though, is certainly relevant; nevertheless, it remains to be seen what harm Mr Kravchuk chooses to inflict on Moscow\u2019s long term interests.\u00a0 It seems likely that he will play \u201cindependent\u201d on the lines of the late comrade Nicolae Ceausescu, with various \u201cformer\u201d politburo members in the roles of \u201cindependent leaders\u201d.<\/p>\n Hitherto, political gains from the ostensive disintegration exercise are enormous.\u00a0 It boosts Western support for the \u201cembattled Gorbi\u201d and provides him with an easy explanation for inaction, whenever he needs it.\u00a0 But what seems to be much more significant is the real disintegration of the Western alliance, with the fate of Israel being the most telling example. [3] Western European countries, despite the assurance to the contrary, seek reduction in their commitment to NATO, and in the United States the Pentagon is reported to plan to cut two army divisions, reduce the number of fighter wings from 36 to 20 and scrap three aircraft carrier groups. [4]<\/p>\n Why did the soviets wait for so long, then?\u00a0 Why did they not play the pretend disintegration card earlier?\u00a0 Why did they oppose the Baltics\u2019 independence for so long, for instance?\u00a0 It is a psychological truth that one\u2019s appreciation of success is proportional to the resistance one encountered in the process of achieving it.\u00a0 Secondly, such resistance gives credibility to the subsequent retreat as \u201ccommitted under pressure\u201d.\u00a0 We are in the domain of PR, where perception is everything.<\/p>\n A faithful believer in the collapse theory would, I suppose, insist that, whatever the intentions of the soviet authorities, their influence has dramatically decreased.\u00a0 The role of the Centre is going to be reduced to co-ordination; mere co-ordination of: foreign policy, economic restructuring and military command.\u00a0 Meanwhile, the Kremlin will look after soviet nuclear capacity (in conformity with the non-proliferation treaties, of course) and will supervise economic co-operation between the republics.\u00a0 No more.\u00a0 Presidents Kravchuk, Nazarbayev, Yeltsin & co. can all be trusted, at least as much as presidents Havel, Iliescu, Wa\u0142\u0119sa, and they will be allowed to manage their respective republics\u2019 internal affairs in their own way.\u00a0 In other words, we will see a new, more successful application of the \u201cSinatra\u2019s doctrine\u201d in place of the non-existent \u201cBrezhnev\u2019s doctrine\u201d.<\/p>\n It is worth remembering that the West has always desired a peaceful disintegration of the ussr.\u00a0 The understandable interest in all developments leading ostensibly to this end, ought to have been counterbalanced by scrupulous examination of the validity of a \u201cdream-come-true\u201d situation.\u00a0 Otherwise, the overall picture was bound to be distorted by wishful thinking, even in the ideal world where there would be no communist deception.\u00a0 Unfortunately, no one is willing to examine the disturbing information which could destroy the optimistic image.\u00a0 Western analysts see what they wish to see whilst their soviet counterparts (without inverted quotes) provide them with details confirming their analyses.\u00a0 The apparent disintegration of the ussr is tailor made for Western eyes.\u00a0 It seems beneficial to the West and a disastrous loss to the soviets, because it was designed to seem so.\u00a0 Alas, when it seems \u201ctoo good to be true\u201d it very rarely is true.<\/p>\n Once invented, \u201ccollapsible communism\u201d was vigorously marketed in the West.\u00a0 The \u201cCold War is over\u201d slogan was designed for general public; \u201ccollapse of communism\u201d for free marketeers\u201d; \u201cbreak up of the ussr\u201d for military men; and for intellectuals, the celebrated funeral of marxism-leninism.<\/p>\n We are being told that, whatever the nature of the changes and regardless of whether they were initiated from above or not, something new and lively has emerged from the rubble of communism.\u00a0 Soviet people liberated themselves from the clutches of a stale doctrine.\u00a0 They speak their minds, they exercise their freedom.\u00a0 Life flows again in the soviet blood system because marxism-leninism is dead.<\/p>\n Whilst it is undoubtedly true that the ussr was for many years tightly and relentlessly embraced by the doctrine, it would be foolish to suggest that Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin or Khrushch\u00ebv were all doctrinaires.\u00a0 On the contrary, they were all extremely versatile and inventive.\u00a0 Their flexible and creative approach to the matters of tactics became their hallmark and they all managed to successfully adapt to circumstances.\u00a0 Their ideological background, contrary to popular perception, encouraged that attitude and in itself did not constitute a sacrosanct area.\u00a0 Lenin\u2019s nep amounted to no less that an ideological U-turn; so was Stalin\u2019s thesis of \u201csocialism in one country\u201d, so was Khrushch\u00ebv\u2019s \u201cde-stalinisation\u201d.\u00a0 Despite the changes they implemented, they were all attached to one principle of marxism-leninism: their long term global strategic aim remained the same: world domination.<\/p>\n Even the state they created they regarded as merely an instrument in the pursuit of absolute power.\u00a0 All internal developments were viewed and evaluated in an external context, in relation to the current situation on the international chess-board.\u00a0 The total control they enjoyed over their peoples enabled them to shape the domestic affairs so as to maximise the strategic gains.\u00a0 It can be said that marxism-leninism is a doctrine of foreign affairs.<\/p>\n Mikhail Gorbach\u00ebv is a worthy successor to the Fathers and Doctors of communism.\u00a0 He is certainly a true leninist; he remains faithful to Lenin\u2019s aims and still draws lessons from Lenin\u2019s tactics.\u00a0 He devised glasnost\u2019<\/em> and perestroika<\/em> to launch a new offensive onto the West (known as \u201cnew political thinking\u201d).\u00a0 His short term aim was the integration of the soviet union into the world economy.\u00a0 The long term objective remained unchanged.\u00a0 His policy of developing close economic and cultural ties with outside world is nothing new in the soviet strategy.\u00a0 Large scale investments in the ussr will not change much in the collapsed soviet economy but will certainly change the world economy beyond recognition.\u00a0 The very idea of merging two such heterogeneous entities would be equal to, say, integrating Atlantic Ocean into the continental Europe: first you bring your sea defences down…\u00a0 The consequences must be disastrous, and this is precisely why they are interesting for Gorbach\u00ebv.\u00a0 The ruins of the integrated world economy will provide a fertile ground for collapsible communism to re-emerge.\u00a0 Aided by its potent \u201calternative economy\u201d, capable of delivering hi-tech goods regardless of the state of affairs around it, soviet leaders will find themselves in a desirable position to dictate.\u00a0 And that is the long term prospect.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, we will be treated to more changes of names, more salvation councils being set up, more statues being brought down.\u00a0 People\u2019s energy gets harmlessly channelled by street name changes.\u00a0 Expectations are raised by new committees, preventing people from taking matters into their own hands.\u00a0 Social wrath is quietly defused by the unforgettable sight of statues being removed and humiliated.\u00a0 Even Stalin\u2019s figure has recently been dumped face down in a Moscow park, although it was nowhere to be seen before. [5]<\/p>\n And yet, to suggest that someone dumps statues at night in parks to placate and accommodate public anger is to be accused of \u201cconspiratorial flight of fancy\u201d.\u00a0 The idea that authorities could set up bogus committees to conceal real issues and avoid real change is considered \u201cbarmy\u201d.<\/p>\n Lenin always maintained that worldwide revolution was an aim justifying the use of any means.\u00a0 Tactical retreats or great deception plans, if they are to be successfully implemented, demand a high degree of secrecy and co-ordination.\u00a0 Eventual success depends largely \u2013 but not exclusively \u2013 on this secrecy.\u00a0 Is it in fact a conspiracy?\u00a0 Or rather a skilful political manipulation aimed at achieving strategic gains?\u00a0 It seems strange to me that a political commentator reflecting upon the way in which Mr Heseltine had tricked Mr Major into abandoning the community charge is a \u201cpolitical analyst\u201d, while someone presenting soviet deception game must be a \u201cpeddler of conspiracy theories\u201d.\u00a0 Never mind.\u00a0 Those who pointed out the use of deception in soviet startegy were forever being rebuffed and ridiculed by sovietologists (with soviet blessing), who preferred to analyse the esoteric language of soviet publications in endless pursuit of alleged factional divisions and power struggles.\u00a0 These days they occasionally get some stick from the press.<\/p>\n Jonathan Steele wrote in The Guardian<\/em>:<\/p>\n Russians love conspiracy theories, and a surprising number of people here are convinced the putsch was all a fake.\u00a0 Whatever else 74 years of bolshevism have done, they have instilled a wide-spread belief that politics are not the shambles that they seem, but a complicated script in which one or two masterminds are able to manipulate millions. [6]<\/p>\n The key to this passage is provided by the ominous words \u201cpolitics are not the shambles that they seem\u201d.\u00a0 Certainly, politics is a game of conflicting interests, it is therefore, appropriate to call it \u201cshambles\u201d.\u00a0 The realm of politics is invariably dominated by intrigues, be it in a parliamentary democracy or in an absolute monarchy.\u00a0 One intrigue counterbalanced by another and then double-crossed by yet another \u2013 makes it all a shambles.\u00a0 But the same cannot reasonably be said by totalitarian states.\u00a0 Unlike the merely authoritarian ones, they tend to use the total control they exercise over their populations to pursue long term objectives.\u00a0 Thus, politics in Russia are not shambles at all.<\/p>\n The communist movement from its origins in the Communist Manifesto was always dedicated to deception.\u00a0 Marx and Engels sought to exploit \u201cthe shambles of politics\u201d by siding with specific political parties for short term gains.\u00a0 They advised their followers to support every destabilising force, whilst never losing the sight of the revolutionary goal.\u00a0 Lenin put that theory into practice.\u00a0 Manoeuvring from war communism to nep, he relentlessly pursued the same objective.\u00a0 In the Thirties, his successor, despite his obvious weakness, created an image of a superpower to fend off potential aggressors and to give credit to his global aspirations.\u00a0 During the war, Stalin introduced a series of fa\u00e7ade<\/em> changes to persuade his Western allies that his regime was evolving towards normal national government.\u00a0 His success, though, has to be attributed to the will on the part of Western leaders to see those changes as genuine, rather than to the skill of his manoeuvres.<\/p>\n Churchill indirectly acknowledged that he had been deceived, in his famous Fulton speech where he coined the \u201cIron Curtain\u201d phrase.\u00a0 Not a great many duped leaders ever manage to do quite that much but the unfortunate pattern that emerged from this speech was to henceforth recognise solely past<\/span> communist deceptions.\u00a0 The ongoing provocation seems to be impenetrable whilst it is being perpetrated.\u00a0 Even though the elements of the wider plan are being constantly uncovered, the process of connecting the dots eludes Western observers for one reason only: to match them up would amount to giving credit to a conspiracy theory.<\/p>\n Debating the conspiratorial version of history is not my topic here.\u00a0 \u201cMasonic plots\u201d or \u201cinternational Jewry\u2019s manipulations\u201d are not worth discussing.\u00a0 It would not be appropriate though, to discard a priori<\/em> any attempt to point at secret deals as a motor behind certain developments.\u00a0 Is Machiavelli\u2019s Prince<\/em> a work of political fiction?\u00a0 Or is history a stage increasingly prone to manipulation?\u00a0 The modern world, with millions of people everywhere glued to television screens, invites such actions much more than the 16th<\/sup> century Italy did.<\/p>\n Nonetheless, those who look down with contempt on peddlers of conspiracy theories are ready to admit the shadowy nature of politics; this, in fact, is their principal argument against a \u201ccomplicated script\u201d of long term deception plan (as we saw articulated by Jonathan Steele).\u00a0 Conspiracy seems to them too simple (if not simple minded) an explanation.\u00a0 My belief is that they can maintain such a stance only because of their fundamental misapprehension of communism.<\/p>\n Soviet union and its derivatives (mainly in Eastern Europe but also on every other continent) constitute a class of their own.\u00a0 A conventional national state is committed to welfare of, at least, a small part of its citizens.\u00a0 The wellbeing of one\u2019s own subjects was the usual motivation behind most invasions and peace treaties in history.\u00a0 Not so in the ussr.\u00a0 The popular analysis of soviet society pitches the privileged class (nomenklatura<\/em>) against the deprived masses but it fails to grasp that most members of the privileged class would prefer to be deprived as long as it was somewhere else.\u00a0 Soviet invasions and peace treaties have only ideological justification.\u00a0 Soviet territorial expansion had nothing to do with conventional \u201cimperialism\u201d or \u201ccolonialism\u201d (the quality of life in Prague or Warsaw remained higher than in Moscow throughout the allegedly colonial rule).\u00a0 But once all structures of the state are subservient to an ideological objective, one can embark on long term operations.\u00a0 Hence only in the soviet world is it possible to successfully conduct long term deceptions because a natural balance between action and counter-action, as motivated by various natural interests in free societies, does not exist there.<\/p>\n The infamous \u201cabortive coup in Moscow\u201d was the most recent example of this process.\u00a0 And an amazing coup it was.<\/p>\n ______<\/p>\n The above text was written in 1991 for the <\/em>Soviet Analyst.\u00a0 The late Christopher Story did not like my implied criticism of Winston Churchill and decided to publish only the second part, devoted to the Moscow coup.<\/em><\/p>\n ______<\/p>\n <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Communism has collapsed. The Cold War is over. Soviet union is disintegrating. Marxism-leninism is dead. Or at least everyone says so. All these dramatic changes of such historic importance have apparently been sparked off by the famous \u201cabortive coup in Moscow\u201d.\u00a0 The hardline plotters seem to have sealed the fate of the Cold War and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,63],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-michal-bakowski","category-przybijanie-kisielu-do-sciany"],"yoast_head":"\n\n